The One Dollar Donut Economic Indicator

Forget about the government's leading economic indicators or the news media's town criers who masquerade as experts in this field. Never mind the cost of gasoline as it passes the four dollar mark. If you want to know where the economy is going, check out your local donut emporium!

Yesterday morning, I sauntered in to our very local, very old, donut shop. Salida Donuts (not sure if that is actually its name, it doesn't matter) is a mere 100 feet or so from the Salida Post Office. Every couple of weeks, either Loretta or I rationalize that it is time again for a huge dose of starch, sugar, and fat in the form of a donut (or three) and we indulge. She always gets some sort of cream filled eclair thingy. I opt for several old-fashioned-buttermilk glazed or maple bars. Know this...I'm not talking about those anemic Krispy Kreme air-filled puff donuts. I'm talking about nice, big, gut bombs from your locally-owned-by-prideful-Asians donut shops. Good donuts!

In a brief exchange between myself and the friendly Filippina donut shop proprietor lady, I learned some disturbing, though not surprising, economic news. The cost of her basic, no-frills donut line will go from 65 cents to 75 cents very shortly. Late last year, it was 55 cents. Of course, the fancier ones will also undergo a similar price increase. She explained the cost of flour and other pastry accoutrement has gotten out of hand lately and she has no other choice but to pass this increase on to her customers. "No big deal", I consoled the donut lady as she continued to apologetically explain her business dilemma. "We'll still buy donuts...maybe not as often", I offered with a patented sympathetic smirk on my face. In a quaint broken English, her lamented response was, "Business much slower than last year this time!". I grabbed my little white bag of donuts off the counter, threw her a real smile, shrugged my shoulders, and excited the Salida donut shop with the little silver bell ringing out a subtle goodbye.

I can't help but think that our donuts will reach the one-dollar mark soon. One dollar for a frickin' glob of flour, sugar, and fat! If you don't believe that, keep in mind the cost of gasoline has risen much higher than 30% in a short amount of time. I realize the factors controlling the cost of a gallon of gas are much more volatile and politically oriented than the cost of donut flour, but not much more.

Whether we are in a recession or not, we are in for continued tough economic times ahead. Perhaps The One Dollar Donut will be a good thing for us Americans. After all, most of us are too fat anyway! We have a choice with donuts, eat less of them. Not so the case with utilities, milk, and bread. We need heat...and we gotta eat something!

By the way, did you notice the price of a half gallon of milk is almost three dollars now?